Experts and Officials Cannot Rule Out Sabotage as Probe Deepens
On June 12, 2025, at approximately 1:38 p.m. IST, Air India Flight AI-171—a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner carrying 230 passengers and 12 crew—crashed into a residential area near Ahmedabad’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport moments after takeoff.. While initial theories centred on technical failure, bird strikes, and pilot error, aviation experts emphasise that sabotage remains a live possibility in the absence of conclusive evidence to the contrary.
“Sabotage Not Ruled Out,” Say Industry Analysts
Early assessments by Boeing and the DGCA have focused on mechanical and procedural factors. However, Mrityunjay Bose, writing in Deccan Herald, noted that “sabotage has not been ruled out by experts,” urging restraint until black box data is analysed. Likewise, a report from Onmanorama underscores that “till further investigation, one can never really be sure if sabotage was involved,” especially against the backdrop of regional geopolitical tensions.
AAIB Launches High-Level Probe
India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) has been tasked with determining the root cause. Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu announced the formation of a “high-level committee comprising experts from multiple disciplines,” explicitly to explore all potential scenarios, including deliberate interference.. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Boeing have dispatched teams to Ahmedabad to assist with forensic analysis of flight recorders and wreckage
Black Box Evidence Could Be Decisive
Investigators stress that the flight data and cockpit voice recorders—commonly known as “black boxes”—will be pivotal in confirming or disproving sabotage theories. According to the Times of India, these devices can “definitively establish whether the disaster resulted from mechanical failure, engine malfunction, bird strike, onboard fire, or human error,” and by extension, whether an intentional act played a role.
Geopolitical Context Adds to Concerns
Ahmedabad’s airport is India’s seventh busiest, and heightened alert levels since recent cross-border skirmishes with Pakistan have raised speculation of malicious third-party involvement. No group has claimed responsibility, nor has any direct evidence of external tampering emerged publicly. Still, aviation security experts warn that until technical analyses are complete, sabotage cannot be categorically excluded.
On-Site Security and Access Control Under Scrutiny
Preliminary AAIB findings reveal that the Dreamliner’s departure procedures conformed to standard protocols. Nevertheless, questions remain about ground-crew vetting, cargo screening, and perimeter security at Runway 23. Delhi-based aviation consultant Arvind Raghavan suggests “comprehensive audits of all access points” to ensure no lapse could facilitate the planting of improvised devices.
What’s Next in the Investigation
- Wreckage Examination: Detailed metallurgical and explosive residue tests to detect traces of incendiary or explosive materials.
- Data Analysis: Reconstruction of flight parameters and crew communications from both black boxes.
- Security Audit: Review of CCTV footage, personnel records, and cargo manifests.
- International Collaboration: Continued cooperation with Boeing, GE Aerospace, FAA, and the NTSB.
Until these steps are complete, authorities caution the public against speculation. The AAIB aims to issue a preliminary report within 30 days, with a full investigation concluding within 12 months, as per Indian regulations.
Conclusion
While mechanical failure and human error remain leading hypotheses for the Ahmedabad crash, the theory of sabotage persists amid incomplete data and regional security concerns. Only a thorough, transparent investigation—anchored by black box analysis and forensic testing—will deliver definitive answers.
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