The Indus Water Treaty, signed by former Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in the 1950s, has long been criticized as a blunder for giving away 80% of the water to Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recognized this mistake and has been working to correct it. Following the Uri attack, Modi famously declared, “Water and blood can’t flow together.”
While many were focused on nuclear capabilities, Modi has been quietly laying the groundwork to strategically choke Pakistan by harnessing the power of water resources. Projects such as the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project on a tributary of the Jhelum River, the Ratle Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab River, the Tulbul Navigation Project on the Jhelum River, the Shahpurkandi Dam on the Ravi River, and the Ujh Multipurpose Project on a tributary of the Ravi River have all been in progress over the past decade.
With the summers growing increasingly hot, Pakistan is facing a looming water crisis. The projects being carried out by India are set to restrict the flow of water into Pakistan, particularly impacting regions like Sindh and Punjab, which rely heavily on this water for agriculture. As a result, Pakistan’s food production, which is largely dependent on these water sources, will be severely affected.
Why the suspension is devastating for Pakistan
— For Pakistan, the Indus system is not just vital—it is existential.
— 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land—about 16 million hectares—relies on water from the Indus system.
— 93% of this water is used for irrigation, powering the country’s agricultural backbone.
— The system supports over 237 million people, with Pakistan accounting for 61% of the Indus Basin population.
— Major urban centres—Karachi, Lahore, Multan—draw their water directly from these rivers.
— Hydropower plants like Tarbela and Mangla also depend on uninterrupted flows.
The system contributes nearly 25% of Pakistan’s GDP and supports crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton. Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, and per capita availability is declining rapidly. If India cuts off or significantly reduces flows from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, the impact will be immediate and severe:
— Food production could collapse, threatening food security for millions.
— Urban water supplies would dry up, causing unrest in cities.
— Power generation would stall, crippling industries and homes.
— Loan defaults, unemployment, and migration could spike in rural regions.
India’s decision marks a major shift in its approach to Pakistan. While New Delhi has earlier threatened to “revisit” the IWT after previous attacks, this is the first time the treaty has been formally suspended. The timing is deliberate: the move hits Pakistan where it hurts most—agriculture, food, water, and energy security.
While India uses the 33 MAF from its allocated rivers mainly for agriculture in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, and hydropower, its ability to affect Pakistan’s flows is limited under normal treaty conditions. Suspending the IWT removes that limit, putting control back in India’s hands.
The proactive measures taken by India under Modi’s leadership are set to have a significant impact on Pakistan’s water supply, potentially leading to a crisis shortly. The strategic maneuvering in water resources highlights India’s commitment to safeguarding its interests and leveraging its resources to assert itself in the region.
