A recent public opinion survey conducted by VoteVibeLLP has revealed that 36% of respondents perceive a high level of anti-incumbency sentiment against the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led NDA government in Assam. This finding indicates a potentially significant challenge for the ruling dispensation as they prepare for the upcoming elections.
The survey, which asked participants to rate the level of anti-incumbency against the current government, found that 50.5% of respondents reported high or very high levels of dissatisfaction. This growing undercurrent of discontent with the state government could have far-reaching implications for the upcoming elections.
Interestingly, younger voters aged 18-24 registered the highest levels of anti-incumbency sentiment at 56%, suggesting that issues such as employment opportunities, inflation, and governance delivery are particularly concerning for this demographic. This trend was also reflected in the 25-34 and 55+ age groups.
Gender differences in perception were minimal, with both male and female respondents reporting similar levels of anti-incumbency sentiment. However, the survey did reveal a polarized voter base, with a significant segment expressing dissatisfaction and another remaining supportive of the current government.
Analysts warn that this strong anti-incumbency wave, especially among first-time and young voters, could significantly impact electoral dynamics in the upcoming elections. The survey, which included over 10,000 respondents from Assam, was conducted using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) and responses were weighted for gender and population proportion.
As Assam approaches its next political test, these findings highlight the depth and breadth of public dissatisfaction with the current government, particularly among the youth. This demographic, known for its potential to shape election outcomes, could play a crucial role in determining the future leadership of the state.
